Monday, September 7, 2009

Final Rankings and a Look Back

With the fantasy regular season over, it seems a good time to look back at some comments made in this blog in argument with those made in the ODFB blog and see how they turned out.

April:

Week 2

Huapaya’s Playas stingy GM, Corey Huapaya, has taken a liking to...Kurt Suzuki(Shoppach and Inge are on the waiver wire)

While I would agree there are better catching options available (Yadier Molina perhaps?), I don't see why Shoppach was one of the two you chose here. His season rank is pretty bad so far (663 compared to Suzuki's 729) and Suzuki has had nearly twice as many at bats (45 to 24). I don't see a line of zeroes to be better than what Suzuki can give him on any given day.

So how did this one turn out?

Inge rank: 184 (6th among catchers)
Suzuki rank: 219 (7th among catchers)
Molina rank: 395 (13th among catchers)
Shoppach rank: 998 (28th among catchers)

While the original author was right about Inge (although I never disputed that part), he was badly off about Suzuki and Shoppach. Suzuki ended up being one of the better fantasy catchers in the league this year. Shoppach, on the other hand, struggled mightily, hitting only .209 and slugging only .387. In other words, he was terrible.

Led by extra base machine Nick Swisher

He has been an extra base hit machine so far, but then again, so has Freddy Sanchez. Does anyone expect either one to keep it up?

Swisher is now 41st in XBH with 54 behind such noted powerhouses as Cody Ross and Marlon Byrd. It isn't bad, but he isn't exactly a machine. Speaking of machines, Albert Pujols (who else?) leads the majors with 80 XBH. Sanchez, by the way, has 39 XBH at this point, which does not put him in the top 100 in MLB. Considering he already had double digit XBH in week 2 when this was originally posted (as did Swisher), I'd say he's fallen off a bit.

Here’s your random hitter [Brandon Phillips]...that sucked, even though [he's] really good in reality.

Is he though? He put up a .261/.312/.442 last year, when he was only the 8th best fantasy 2B by Yahoo rank. That doesn't seem "really good" to me.

This year, Phillips's line has been .273/.330/.459, which is only a small uptick from last year. Also, he is still only the 8th best 2B by Yahoo rank this year. I'm probably more bearish on him than most would be, but I still don't see how this could be considered "really good."


Week 3

Huapaya looks as if he’s playing to get Aztecs pitcher Stephen Strasburg.

Strasburg has a pretty good shot at pitching in the majors this year, which means he will be ineligible for the minor league draft next year. If you meant the rights to draft him first in the majors draft, I don't feel he would be anything close to a slam dunk #1 pick in that draft (as he would be in the minors one).

This one goes in the miss column for me. I really thought the Nats would bring Strasburg up in September to keep a little interest in the team among the fans. I'm quite disappointed they didn't as well, since the Alliance has been holding onto the #1 waiver priority for months, waiting to pounce as soon as he is added to the Yahoo system. But now, without a call-up to the majors this year, his being added seems highly unlikely.

Huapaya mentioned to some of his fellow GM’s that “he’s just off to a slow start.” Well Corey, you better figure out something quick.

Huapaya is currently in 10th place (not even last) and is only 4 games back from a playoff spot and 6.5 back of first place. Maybe it is just a slow start. It seems a little early to be writing anyone off.

As it turns out, it was just a slow start. Huapaya finished the regular season in 5th place and is currently in the playoffs. (Update: As it turns out, Huapaya finished second in the ODFB playoffs, barely being edged out by The Alliance in the finals)

They’ve also pulled the first “rape” trade of the year

Is anyone else offended? Rape? This is almost as offensive as the Adenhart incident.

But seriously, is this trade as bad as it's being made out to be? Can Brandon Webb really help a team if he is injured and not pitching?

To refresh your memory, in this trade, So Cho sent Jake Peavy to Huapaya for Brandon Webb and Dan Uggla. The quoted comment was saying that So Cho was raping Huapaya in this trade. I disagreed due to the fact that Webb was hurt. Since then, the following has happened:

Peavy: 8 games started, 4 wins, 39 K, 2.86 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, on DL since June 9
Webb: 0 games started, never returned from DL, out for season
Uggla: 407 AB, 21 HR, 56 RBI, 1 SB, .243 AVG (19th ranked 2B in Yahoo for the season)

So for this season, it became a trade of 50.1 excellent innings of pitching from Peavy for a middle of the pack second baseman. This one could go either way, depending upon what you value, but I could argue that Huapaya got the better of this deal. Of course, that is without considering these guys as keepers, which may be tougher for Peavy as he has been traded to the AL, but even if Webb turns out to be better next year, this is nowhere near the brutal rape it was made out to be. In fact, looking at the numbers, it seems downright consensual.

Whenever you can cut a “worst-case” 15/75 guy [Mark DeRosa], to add a “best-case” 15/75 guy, you gotta do it.

Mark DeRosa has been in the major leagues for at least part of every season since 1998. In that time, he has had exactly ONE 15/75 season, which of course was last year, when it was 21/87. That makes a 15/75 season seem far more like a "best-case" for him than a "worst-case."

While it is odd for a guy to have a career year at age 33 (as DeRosa did last year) and then follow it up with a pretty good year the following year (as he has this year), I will admit I was (probably) wrong about this one. I did not expect him to reach those numbers again, but he has 21 HR and 69 RBI as of this writing, so it is likely he will once again reach 15/75 by the end of the season.


May:

Week 4

Jared Mercuri, who earlier in the year was ready to trade Nick Markakis and Howie Kendrick for a handful of scrubs

This seems to imply that Howie Kendrick is good. I'm confused.

Kendrick is the 27th ranked second baseman in Yahoo this year. I think I got this one right.


Week 6

Hopefully the return of Soria and Valverde will give [the Alliance] a much needed boost.

Seeing as how they have won saves in five of the six weeks, the addition of two closers will likely not give as much of a boost as some of the other injured players, such as Aramis Ramirez, Chris Carpenter (back this Wednesday), Hiroki Kuroda, or Justin Duchscherer, should. It can be noted, however, that the closers might provide a small amount of help in the ERA and WHIP categories.

The biggest boost has come from Carpenter, who has been his usual dominant self since making that return from the DL and, perhaps more importantly, has not returned to the DL since. Hiroki Kuroda, on the other hand, did not provide much of a boost at all. And Justin Duchcherer was too busy continually getting injured and crying himself to sleep to bother even pitching this season.

Valverde and Soria both returned a few weeks after this was written. While they didn't provide a real boost, they have been consistently good, so I'd call this argument more of a wash.


June:

Week 10

Even the “streamers” in this league will think twice before adding such an inconsistent pitcher [Snell]

Clearly you don't know streamers too well. They are a desperate group, grasping for straws in hopes that one will turn into a diamond in the rough. Some of them even use split stats to justify their pick-ups. With that said, if Snell has an indoor start this year, I'd say there's a good chance he'll get picked up, as he has a 2.84 ERA in 19.0 indoor innings this year and a 3.42 ERA in 50.0 career indoor innings. But even if he doesn't start another game indoors all year, I'd still put money on his being added to a roster again. Desperation can lead sane men to do insane things, and I'm not so sure that all the streamers are even sane.

Snell has been added to a team twice since this was posted. The first time was a mere 5 days later, on June 22, by Georgia. The second time he was added was when WallaWalla hit that little green plus sign on August 24. Interestingly enough, that second time was not a stream, as he was added on a day he was starting, so that he would not be available to WallaWalla until the following day. Even stranger was the fact that WallaWalla then waived him 3 days later, prior to his next start, making the addition completely pointless.


August:

Week 17

They also receive Tampa Ace James Shields to help solidify their starting rotation for the stretch run.

Shields has 6 wins this year, with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. His overall rank is 729. His numbers are actually quite similar to SCF's season pitching stats of a 3.84 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. While he has been decent, he seems more par for the course than a solidifying force. For his career, however, he does have a 3.16 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in August and September, so we'll see how this turns out.

Since then, Shields has 6 starts, 3 wins, a 5.07 ERA, and a 1.49 WHIP. He has put up worse numbers than both he and the Force had previously put up on the season. In other words, we've seen how this has turned out, and it hasn't been good.

When healthy, Bedard has been stellar, regularly surrendering less than 2 ER per start, while K’ing more than a batter per inning.

Bedard has allowed less than 2 ER in 5 of the 15 games he has started, which I would not consider regularly. He has, however, surrendered less than 3 ER in 13 starts, and surrendered only 3 ER in the other 2 starts (which both occurred in April). While this appears impressive (and it is quite good), it is also misleading. The fact is that only 6 of his 15 starts have been quality starts, for the simple reason that those were the only games in which he pitched 6+ innings. In 4 of his starts, he hasn't even reached the 5 inning minimum for a win, and in 4 others, he pitched exactly 5 innings. This also affects the strikeout numbers, so while the per inning ratio is good, the overall strikeouts (which is the fantasy category) are not overly impressive. While Bedard would be a good pickup who would certainly help ERA, WHIP, and Ks, he has not been quite as "stellar" as the quoted statement would have you believe.

Nobody was right here, as Bedard didn't get traded, and wouldn't have been a good pickup if he had been, as he never returned from that DL stint.

The Force are making their run in 2009, and that has Milltown and San Diego shitting themselves.

Entire cities are shitting themselves? Did you make a fantasy trade or discover the brown note? And no mention of the Alliance or the Cottonpickers, who both are still ahead of the Force in the standings?

I'm still not sure anybody is shitting themselves, but this trade did seem to greatly improve the Force, who have not lost since it was made. In other words, they went from being a fringe playoff team to being a legitimate contender.

And finally, without further adieu, the final power rankings of the year:

Week 22 Power Rankings

Rank Change Team Name Score Actual
1 - San Diego Stingers 4.69 2
2 - Milltown Monsters 2.49 1
3 - The Alliance 1.55 5
4 - Ohio Hustlers 0.88 7
5 - Huapaya Players 0.25 5
6 - South Carolina Force 0.15 3
7 - GA Cottonpickers -0.44 4
8 - WallaWalla DirtDawgs -1.09 8
9 - So Cho Guiney's -1.53 10
10 - Arlington Templars -1.86 8
11 - Lima Time -2.04 11
12 - Cape Cod Cods -3.04 12

For the first time all season, there was no movement in the rankings at all. San Diego went wire to wire in the #1 spot, and was never really even close to losing it. Milltown similarly went wire to wire at #2 and was comfortable there. Pretty clearly, I think San Diego is the favorite to win in the playoffs (despite their rank in the actual standings), although one week is a small enough sample size that anything is possible. I guess it's time to sit back and see what happens.

Until next year?

Week 21 Rankings

Week 21 Power Rankings

Rank Change Team Name Score Actual
1 - San Diego Stingers 4.32 2
2 - Milltown Monsters 2.73 1
3 - The Alliance 1.72 4
4 - Ohio Hustlers 0.85 7
5 - Huapaya Players 0.16 6
6 +1 South Carolina Force 0.04 3
7 -1 GA Cottonpickers -0.05 4
8 - WallaWalla DirtDawgs -0.91 9
9 - So Cho Guiney's -1.55 10
10 - Arlington Templars -1.62 8
11 - Lima Time -2.41 11
12 - Cape Cod Cods -3.27 12

Sunday, August 30, 2009

Week 20 Rankings

I missed last week, but here are this week's standings:

Week 20 Power Rankings

Rank Change Team Name Score Actual
1 - San Diego Stingers 4.13 2
2 - Milltown Monsters 3.04 1
3 - The Alliance 1.69 5
4 - Ohio Hustlers 0.65 7
5 - Huapaya Players 0.59 3
6 +1 GA Cottonpickers 0.03 5
7 -1 South Carolina Force -0.09 3
8 +1 WallaWalla DirtDawgs -1.01 8
9 -1 So Cho Guiney's -1.42 10
10 - Arlington Templars -2.06 9
11 - Lima Time -2.29 11
12 - Cape Cod Cods -3.26 12

Not a whole lot of movement anymore as we get close to the end of the season. Interesting to note is that despite the fact that San Diego has led the power rankings from wire to wire, Milltown has pulled away from the pack in the actual standings, now 13.5 games ahead of the Stingers, who are in second place. It also looks likely that Ohio will miss the playoffs despite their strong power ranking, although a lot can change in the two weeks before the playoffs.

Monday, August 17, 2009

Week 18 Rankings

Week 18 Power Rankings

Rank Change Team Name Score Actual Weeks
1 - San Diego Stingers 4.52 2 14
2 - Milltown Monsters 2.91 1 14
3 - The Alliance 1.97 3 14
4 - Ohio Hustlers 0.57 6 12
5 - Huapaya Players 0.14 7 13
6 +1 South Carolina Force -0.34 4 1
7 -1 GA Cottonpickers -0.36 5 7
8 - So Cho Guiney's -1.13 10 6
9 - WallaWallaDirtDawgs -1.23 9 0
10 - Arlington Templars -1.45 8 0
11 - Lima Time -2.10 11 3
12 - Cape Cod Cods -3.51 12 0

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Week 17: Return of the Blog

There was a new post over at ODFB for the first time in about a month an a half, so we're back.

Let's Make A Deal

After bargaining back and forth, their mid-morning conversation dragged into the night hours.

Apparently there is someone else in the league who has more free time than I do. Much more free time.

So Cho gets a headstart on rebuilding, acquiring pre-season #2 (Matt Wieters) and #9 (Feliz) prospects

No snarky comment here, I just thought I'd point out that Keith Law had them ranked #1 and #4 respectively, so yeah, not a bad haul for a rebuilding team. While I'd normally question giving up a catcher (Martinez) when good ones are so rare in fantasy, the Wieters return should make up for that. That is, of course, assuming he lives up to the hype.

SCF receives some much needed punch to their lineup with Victor Martinez (18 HR) and Mark DeRosa (20 HR).

Apparently they received so much punch that it improved V-Mart's HR total. It is actually 16, just the way McCarthy likes it.

They also receive Tampa Ace James Shields to help solidify their starting rotation for the stretch run.

Shields has 6 wins this year, with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. His overall rank is 729. His numbers are actually quite similar to SCF's season pitching stats of a 3.84 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. While he has been decent, he seems more par for the course than a solidifying force. For his career, however, he does have a 3.16 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in August and September, so we'll see how this turns out.

When healthy, Bedard has been stellar, regularly surrendering less than 2 ER per start, while K’ing more than a batter per inning.

Bedard has allowed less than 2 ER in 5 of the 15 games he has started, which I would not consider regularly. He has, however, surrendered less than 3 ER in 13 starts, and surrendered only 3 ER in the other 2 starts (which both occurred in April). While this appears impressive (and it is quite good), it is also misleading. The fact is that only 6 of his 15 starts have been quality starts, for the simple reason that those were the only games in which he pitched 6+ innings. In 4 of his starts, he hasn't even reached the 5 inning minimum for a win, and in 4 others, he pitched exactly 5 innings. This also affects the strikeout numbers, so while the per inning ratio is good, the overall strikeouts (which is the fantasy category) are not overly impressive. While Bedard would be a good pickup who would certainly help ERA, WHIP, and Ks, he has not been quite as "stellar" as the quoted statement would have you believe.

The Force are making their run in 2009, and that has Milltown and San Diego shitting themselves.

Entire cities are shitting themselves? Did you make a fantasy trade or discover the brown note? And no mention of the Alliance or the Cottonpickers, who both are still ahead of the Force in the standings?

Well, maybe not Milltown after they recently made SCF look like Rihanna after an encounter with Chris Brown (9-1 week 16 beating).

So this is ok, but I get shit for the Nick Adenhart incident?


Week 17 Power Rankings

Rank Change Team Name Score Actual Weeks
1 - San Diego Stingers 4.43 2 13
2 - Milltown Monsters 2.71 1 13
3 - The Alliance 2.09 3 13
4 - Ohio Hustlers 0.71 6 11
5 +1 Huapaya Players 0.18 7 12
6 -1 GA Cottonpickers -0.13 4 7
7 - South Carolina Force -0.40 5 0
8 - So Cho Guiney's -1.04 10 6
9 +1 WallaWallaDirtDawgs -1.36 9 0
10 +1 Arlington Templars -1.86 8 0
11 -2 Lima Time -2.03 11 3
12 - Cape Cod Cods -3.29 12 0

Sunday, August 2, 2009

Week 16 Rankings

Week 16 Power Rankings

Rank Change Team Name Score Actual Weeks
1 - San Diego Stingers 4.49 2 12
2 - Milltown Monsters 2.80 1 12
3 - The Alliance 2.01 4 12
4 +1 Ohio Hustlers 0.59 6 10
5 +1 GA Cottonpickers 0.31 3 6
6 -2 Huapaya Players 0.14 7 11
7 - South Carolina Force -0.91 5 0
8 - So Cho Guiney's -1.06 9 6
9 - Lima Time -1.55 11 3
10 +1 WallaWallaDirtDawgs -1.69 10 0
11 -1 Arlington Templars -1.93 8 0
12 - Cape Cod Cods -3.21 12 0

Week 15 Rankings

Week 15 Power Rankings

Rank Change Team Name Score Actual Weeks
1 - San Diego Stingers 4.57 2 11
2 - Milltown Monsters 2.35 1 11
3 - The Alliance 2.30 3 11
4 +1 Huapaya Players 0.41 6 10
5 +1 Ohio Hustlers 0.34 6 9
6 -2 GA Cottonpickers 0.06 5 5
7 +1 South Carolina Force -0.64 4 0
8 -1 So Cho Guiney's -0.99 9 6
9 +1 Lima Time -1.74 11 3
10 +1 Arlington Templars -1.76 8 0
11 -2 WallaWallaDirtDawgs -1.80 10 0
12 - Cape Cod Cods -3.10 12 0